|Welcome to Lancelot||
A tool designed for the exploration and visualization of climate change effects
and their impact in a number of socio-economic sectors, as simulated by
the CMCC numerical models.
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Terms and conditions
"Future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the product of very complex dynamic systems, determined by driving forces such as demographic development, socio-economic development, and technological change. Their future evolution is highly uncertain. Scenarios are alternative images of how the future might unfold and are an appropriate tool with which to analyze how driving forces may influence future emission outcomes and to assess the associated uncertainties. They assist in climate change analysis, including climate modeling and the assessment of impacts, adaptation, and mitigation".
(from the IPCC Special Report "Emission Scenarios" – Summary for Policy Makers, A Special Report of IPCC Working Group III, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf)
A1B AND A2 SCENARIOS
In 1996, the IPCC Plenary took the decision to develop a new set of scenarios to update the long-term emissions scenarios developed in 1990 and 1992 and to better understand and address the role of driving forces of emissions and methodologies.
This new set of scenarios is described in "Emission Scenarios, A Special Report of IPCC Working Group III". It includes four different narrative storylines that describe the relationships between emission driving forces and their evolution. For each storyline several different scenarios were developed using different modeling approaches to examine the range of outcomes arising from a range of models that use similar assumptions about driving forces.
The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end-use technologies).
The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing populations. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than other storylines.
This information is taken from "Emission Scenarios, A Special Report of IPCC Working Group III", for more, detailed information, please read the full version of the Report – Summary for Policy Makers http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf
RCP4.5 AND RCP8.5
RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) are the latest concentration scenarios adopted by IPCC for AR5, the Fifth Assessment Report on Climate Change (2013-2014). RCPs are expressed in terms of greenhouse gas concentrations (rather than emission levels) and describe four possible scenarios: RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6. The numbers refer to radiative forcing values in 2100 relative to pre-industrial values and measured in watts per square meter (+8.5, +6.0, +4.5, and +2.6, W/m2, respectively).
"Each pathway 'fixes' two values in the year 2100; how much the planet has heated up, and the concentration of greenhouse gases. Each RCP differs greatly in the rate of forcing and emissions. These different rates, or trajectories, form the 'pathways'. Each RCP differs in emissions, in the rate of forcing, and in the definition of how much the mean surface temperature is increased in 2100."
For more detailed information on RCPs:
A guide to the IPCC's new RCP emissions pathways
The representative concentration pathways: an overview - Climatic Change, 2011, Volume 109, Number 1-2, Detlef P. Vuuren, Jae Edmonds, Mikiko Kainuma, Keywan Riahi, Allison Thomson, Kathy Hibbard, George C. Hurtt, Tom Kram, Volker Krey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Toshihiko Masui, Malte Meinshausen, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Steven J. Smith, Steven K. Rose http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
The historical scenario provides a description of climate conditions of the recent past simulated by the CMCC climate models when integrated with radiative forcings (anthropogenic aerosol and GHGs concentration).
The Historical scenario refers to climate conditions either observed or reconstructed from proxies and observations over the past decades. The historical climate analysis are meant to provide the visitors with information and data on what has been happening in the past (1971 - 2000) and to provide a context for a better comprehension of the climate conditions and impacts described in the other scenarios referred to the future.
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Lancelot adopts the most commonly used names for countries and not necessarily the official name.
The names used do not in any way indicate the opinion of CMCC on the legal status of countries, territories, cities or areas mentioned.
The term "country" is used to indicate, when necessary, also a territory or an area.
Borders between countries are indicated on the maps and do not imply judgment of any kind or the position of CMCC with regard to current international disputes.
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Lancelot is realized thanks to Gemina project. The research leading to these results has received funding from the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and the Italian Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea under the GEMINA
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